Politicians love to say they don't watch polls when their own numbers are down, but few say the same thing when their numbers are up. As Politico puts it: "Presidents have long pooh-poohed polls while privately conducting them."
In case Obama's watching (and he is), he's got plenty to smile about ... and a few things to worry about too.
An Associated Press-GfK poll taken in October 2008, just before Barack Obama won the election, found that just 17% of Americans thought the country was headed in the right direction. Today, as Obama's 100th day in office approaches, that number has jumped to 48%. That's the first time since January '04 that "right direction" outnumbered "wrong direction" in an AP poll. AP explains what President Obama has done to make Americans more optimistic:
Nobody knows how long the honeymoon will last, but Obama has clearly transformed the yes-we-can spirit of his candidacy into a tool of governance.... Even if they don't always like what he's doing, Americans seem content for now that the president is taking action to correct the nation's course.
That certainly doesn't mean Americans are confident all around. While Obama himself may be polling well, some of his policies — and the government as a whole — aren't. A recent Rasmussen poll found that 60% of Americans think the federal government has too much power and too much money. The bank bailouts, which began before Obama was president, didn't fare any better: 59% of voters say they were a bad idea, while 60% say the Chrysler and GM bailouts were a bad idea. In Gallup's long-running question of who the biggest threat to America is — big government, big business or big labor — big government still leads 55% to 32% to 10%, respectively.
It hasn't all been smooth sailing for the president either. Obama received plenty of knocks over an embarrassing number of cabinet picks who withdrew from consideration; he endured a tough fight over the massive stimulus bill and managed only three Republican votes in Congress. But Ann Seltzer, a well-known Iowa pollster, told Politico in February that these woes hadn't yet had a negative affect on Obama's numbers:
"It's eerie — I read the news from the Beltway, and there's this disconnect with the polls from the Midwest that I see all around me."
More recent polls from USA Today/Gallup and The New York Times/CBS News found similar results. Despite serious challenges, Obama has been a strong and decisive leader (USA Today/Gallup) and Americans are growing more optimistic about the economy (NYT/CBS). The New York Times found that two-thirds approve of his overall job performance. Arthur Gilman, a Republican from Ridgewood, N.J., told them:
"It's psychology more than anything else. President Obama has turned around the negative feeling in this country. He's given everything an impetus because he’s very upbeat, like Roosevelt was. It’s too soon to tell if the spending stuff works, but some things have improved.”
Though it may all sound good, The Wall Street Journal pointed out back in March that while Obama's poll numbers are solid, the fact that people are bigger fans of the president himself than they are of his programs could be a big red flag:
William McInturff, a Republican pollster who is co-director of The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, notes that an approval rating in the 60% range is about where new presidents often find themselves about now. Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush were in the same range at this point. Jimmy Carter actually had a 75% approval rating in Roper Center polling in mid-March of his first year. That certainly didn't last.
The charisma and leadership abilities of President Obama and President Reagan have long been noted. In a New York Times op-ed column Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, wonders if Obama's approval ratings are likely to follow the same roller coaster as that of the other "Great Communicator":
With many economists predicting further rises in unemployment and a slow recovery, President Obama, like Reagan, may find the public's patience wearing thin, with predictable consequences at the mid-term elections and perhaps beyond.
While the president has a dizzying agenda to ensure that the public's confidence in him — and his policies — is high, one Obama who doesn't need to worry about numbers is the first lady. According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll, more than three-quarters of Americans have a positive view of Michelle Obama:
The current first lady's high mark nears former first lady Barbara Bush's high mark of 85 percent in Gallup polling conducted near the end of her husband's term, and approaches Laura Bush's top Gallup reading of 80 percent favorable, achieved as her husband was inaugurated for a second time.
Lucky for the president, no one has put out poll numbers on the ever-popular first pup Bo.
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