Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Tom Miller, 79, who calls himself a longtime Republican, has parted ways with his party.
The former banker worked his way up from messenger to senior vice president and worries that the slumping economy means his grandchildren won't have the same opportunities for steady careers, financial security, and health and retirement benefits.
``I don't see my grandchildren having much at all in terms of lifestyle,'' says Miller, who earned a college degree at night as he climbed the corporate ladder during 40 years at Bankers Trust Corp. in New York. ``The economy is in terrible shape. It's our lifeblood.''
The Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, resident is casting his ballot for Democrat Barack Obama, 47, and is part of a group John McCain can't afford to lose. Senior citizens are crucial to the Republican's ability to overcome what both parties acknowledge is a daunting lead for Obama among young voters.
Fears about their economic security, and the financial well- being of their children and grandchildren, are eroding the edge that McCain, 72, had built with older Americans based on his experience and foreign-policy credentials.
That helps explain why McCain is running behind in battleground states like Pennsylvania. Older voters make up about 20 percent of Pennsylvania voters and, with a history of above- average turnout, may account for a bigger share of the presidential vote. Pennsylvania ranks third among U.S. states in the proportion of residents 65 and older, according to U.S. Census statistics.
Economy Recasts Election
``The focus on the economy has recast this race in a way that the McCain folks were not prepared for, and not suited to,'' says Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster and consultant.
Since McCain accepted his party's nomination last month, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has dropped more than 20 percent. Home prices are tumbling at the steepest pace on record, and foreclosures have reached all-time highs.
While McCain ranks better among voters 65 and up than any other age group, their support may not be strong enough. McCain and Obama are running about even nationwide among those 65 and older, according to an Oct. 15 poll by the Washington-based Pew Research Center. Last month, McCain had a 48-35 percent lead in that group.
``It would be a stretch to see a scenario where John McCain could carry Pennsylvania and lose the senior voters,'' says Chris Borick, director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.
Knowledge of Economy
In Pennsylvania, Obama leads McCain 46-40 percent with voters 60 and older, according to an Oct. 16-18 poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg. Last month McCain led 48-42 percent. Overall, the poll showed Obama leading statewide 48-40 percent.
McCain's comment during the Republican primaries, when he said he knows less about the economy than foreign and military policy, troubles 72-year-old Donald Fister of Germansville.
``He admitted that he doesn't know how to run the economy,'' says Fister, who lives off Social Security and a small pension from 34 years at Air Products and Chemicals Inc. in Allentown.
The little money Fister had invested ``disappeared'' in the recent market collapse, he says. ``My Social Security checks seem to be shrinking. It just doesn't keep up with things.''
McCain's plan to extend Bush administration tax cuts will do little to help the ``common people,'' and the Republican's proposal to give Americans a $5,000 tax credit to buy health insurance won't cover the cost of most plans, he says.
``I can't think of anything Obama is not better on,'' Fister says.
Experience Counts
Democrat Donald Sayler can. The 67-year-old Allentown resident is bothered by Obama's relative lack of experience, and remains strongly in McCain's column.
``It doesn't look good for him, but I'm still voting for McCain,'' Sayler says.
Sayler has plenty of dollars-and-cents concerns. He doesn't turn up his heat above 60 degrees Fahrenheit and takes hot showers at the YMCA to save on his oil bill. The retired machine operator works part-time cleaning offices three nights a week to make ends meet. Still, he's more worried Obama will raise taxes and the first-term Illinois senator can't deliver on his promises.
``Where's he going to get the money to do all this?'' he says. ``You can't tax big industries more because that will hurt the economy.''
Showing Up
Retirees like Fister and Sayler can be counted on to show up at the polls Nov. 4. Almost seven in 10 voters 65 and older voted in the 2004 presidential election, compared with 56 percent of younger citizens, according to U.S. Census data.
Experiences from the Great Depression color perceptions for some senior citizens. ``I was a Depression baby,'' says Stephen Antalics, 79, a retired research chemist in Bethlehem. ``I lived in a house where the total amount of money was 10 cents.''
McCain, he says, is too tied to Bush administration economic policies that continue to ``slowly dismantle'' New Deal programs aimed at preventing another depression.
Older Americans backed George W. Bush in 2004, after giving a narrow majority to Democrat Al Gore in 2000, according to exit polls of voters 60 and older compiled by the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
Waiting to Be Won
With 13 days to the election, some senior voters in Pennsylvania are still waiting to be won over.
Pat Holzinger, 67, a registered Republican, remains on the fence. He likes Obama's health-care proposals. Living off a pension, Holzinger worries about how to pay for medicines his wife needs for diabetes and a form of multiple sclerosis. Still, Holzinger considers McCain, a Vietnam prisoner of war, to be ``a bona fide hero'' who's ``up there with George Washington and Daniel Boone.''
McCain needs all the help he can get from voters like Holzinger. Memories of hardship and concern about the working- class's welfare today make some senior citizens hard to win over.
Herman Lipton, 96, recalls that it took a year for his family to recoup part of what they lost in the bank during the Depression. ``Obama's going to take care of the middle class,'' says the retired Allentown factory manager. ``All my life I was middle class.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Catherine Dodge in Allentown, Pennsylvania, at cdodge1@bloomberg.net .
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment