Close Contests in Four Key States:

Economy Jumps as Top Voter Concern

By Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 23, 2008; 7:17 AM

The presidential race between John McCain and Barack Obama in four key battleground states remains remarkably stable despite a month of politically significant developments, with the Illinois senator running ahead of or even with his Republican rival according to polling conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal.

In Colorado, Obama takes 49 percent to 45 percent for McCain while in Michigan Obama stands at 48 percent as compared to 44 percent for McCain. The contest in Minnesota, once considered a lock for Obama, is also quite close with Obama at 47 percent and McCain 45 percent. Only in Wisconsin does Obama have an edge -- 49 percent to 42 percent -- outside the statistical margin of error for the poll.

Those results are remarkably similar to data from July Quinnipiac polls in each of the four states and suggest that despite the massive media coverage surrounding the two parties' national nominating conventions as well as the vice presidential selections -- especially that of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, which many presumed would alter the campaign's dynamic -- little has changed in the race for the White House.

The upheaval in financial markets has crystallized the importance of the economy in each of the four states where it is, by far, the most important issue for voters. The results are most pronounced in Michigan, whose economy has been badly crippled with the collapse of its manufacturing and auto industries. Nearly six in ten voters in the Wolverine State cited the economy as the most important issue in their vote; the war in Iraq trailed far behind (12 percent) as did energy policy (10 percent). In each of the other three states more than half of voters named the economy as the most critical issue in the election.

The surveys are part of a four-month long effort to measure voter sentiment in key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the race. The path to the presidency runs through a handful of closely contested states, and the four states surveyed in this project provide a snapshot of where things stand with a little more than a month until Election Day.

The stasis in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin is reflective of a broader national trend that -- after several weeks of considerable fluctuation especially following the choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate -- has returned to a ballast point with Obama holding a narrow national edge over McCain in most polling.

The latest Gallup tracking poll released Monday put Obama at 48 percent to 44 percent for McCain while a similar tracking survey from Diageo and the Hotline put Obama at 47 percent and McCain at 42 percent.

The closeness of the contest suggests that the 2008 election could well be a carbon copy of the narrow decisions in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush eked out victories over his Democratic challengers thanks to wins in the delegate treasure troves of Ohio and Florida, respectively.

Obama's efforts to expand the playing field have met with mixed results as he has pulled staff out of several states like Georgia, Alaska and North Dakota but remains competitive in several others that have been Republican redoubts in recent years.

In Colorado, where Democrats have made significant gains at the state and federal level in recent years, Obama looks well positioned to be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to claim the Rocky Mountain State. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall holds a 48 percent to 40 percent edge over former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer in the state's open seat Senate race. In the closely contested Minnesota Senate race, GOP Sen. Norm Coleman holds a 49 percent to 42 percent edge over comedian Al Franken.

Virginia, too, looks like a potential pickup for Obama. A new Washington Post survey puts the Illinois Senator at 49 percent while McCain receives 46 percent. If Obama wins the Commonwealth, he would be the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

While McCain's pick of Palin -- and the resultant flood of press coverage -- was painted as a game-changing moment in the campaign, there is a little evidence that the Alaska governor has fundamentally altered the contest.

Nearly six in ten voters in each of the four states said that the vice presidential picks "have little to do with" their presidential vote. That number was highest in Wisconsin (65 percent) and lowest in Colorado (58 percent).

Despite the lack of influence on voting patterns, both Palin and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden were widely regarded as strong picks by voters in all four states. Palin's high water mark was in Wisconsin where 57 percent said she was a "good choice" while just 33 percent said she had been a "bad choice." In both Colorado and Minnesota, 52 percent of those tested said Biden had been a "good choice" as vice president.

And, McCain's attempt to shift his message from one of experience to one of change does not appear to be resonating in the battleground states yet. In each the four states polled nearly twice as many voters said that Obama is the "candidate who will bring change" as say the same of McCain.

McCain does, however, enter the first presidential debate -- centered on foreign policy matters -- with a clear edge over Obama. More than six in ten voters in each of the four states said McCain "better understands" foreign policy matters -- including more than three in ten self-identified Democrats. The debate will take place Friday at the University of Mississippi at 9 p.m. ET.

The four polls were in the field from Sept. 14-21. The sample of likely voters varied by state: Michigan 1,364, Minnesota 1,301, Wisconsin 1,313, Colorado 1,418.