By Shailagh Murray and Perry Bacon Jr.
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, April 2, 2008; A06
WILKES-BARRE, Pa. -- When Sen. Barack Obama's bus rolls to a stop Wednesday in Philadelphia, he will have spent six days on the road and $3 million in television ads trying to bolster his chances in a state where polls show him running well behind Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).
A health nut, Obama (Ill.) has consumed hot dogs, french fries and homemade chocolates. He has sipped a few Yuengling beers. He has largely skipped arena-filling rallies in favor of town-hall-style events and casual visits, delivering populist appeals to the small-town, working-class voters who have proven most resistant to his candidacy.
Despite a few stumbles -- at an Altoona bowling alley, Obama rolled a ball into a gutter on his first try -- political observers say he has started to make the inroads with voters he will need to cut into Clinton's lead.
"The consensus is, this is a pretty successful tour for Obama," said G. Terry Madonna, a political science professor and pollster at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. "He's hitting the right themes. I would be surprised if this doesn't move numbers."
Mark Nevins, Clinton's Pennsylvania spokesman, conceded to reporters on the candidate's campaign bus that Obama's aggressive efforts are making a difference.
Clinton is running a state campaign similar to Obama's, mixing small-scale and larger events that focus on pocketbook issues such as middle-class tax cuts and the creation of new manufacturing jobs. Her crowds are also boisterous, filled with shout-outs and standing ovations, along with signs that say "Don't quit."
She has taken to comparing herself to Rocky Balboa, the underdog boxer who does not know how to give in or give up. She walked onto the stage at an event here on Tuesday as the theme music of the film "Rocky" was played, after earlier invoking the fictional prizefighter in a speech.
"I know what it's like to stumble. I know what it means to get knocked down, but I've never stayed down," Clinton told AFL-CIO members in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
This gritty, ground-level strategy carried Clinton to a convincing victory in Ohio, a state with economic challenges and working-class demographics similar to Pennsylvania's. Whatever inroads Obama may be making, Madonna noted, he "still faces the inevitable problem of unfavorable demographics. We have more Catholics, old people, union members and conservative Democrats than Ohio."
Clinton also enjoys the strong support of Gov. Edward G. Rendell, the mayors of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and other prominent Democratic leaders.
If Obama loses badly in Pennsylvania on April 22, the momentum could shift to Clinton going into May 6, when Indiana and North Carolina vote. A poor showing in another general-election swing state would also raise questions among superdelegates -- the party leaders and elected officials who will probably determine the Democratic nominee -- about whether Obama could beat Republican Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in November.
The Obama campaign has tried to lower its bar for success in Pennsylvania and has signaled an intention to trumpet anything short of a blowout victory by Clinton as one of its most significant triumphs of the primary season.
"President Clinton and Senator Clinton, either in terms of campaigning or governing, have been in this state for 15 years," said Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), who endorsed Obama last week and has accompanied him during much of his campaign through the state. "Hillary Clinton chaired health-care hearings in 1993. She has a good base here, but I think we can cut into it."
Casey's endorsement was one of a couple of recent developments that might indicate a shifting landscape. Another was the registration of 102,000 new voters and 133,000 party switchers as Democrats, a possible indication that Obama's efforts to register college students, Republicans and independents may be paying off.
To win in the state, Obama will probably need to run up big totals in and around Philadelphia, in the Lehigh Valley and in south-central Pennsylvania. Casey's support could help among more conservative Democrats, particularly in the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre region, where his family is a fabled political brand.
On his tour, Obama has infused his stump speech with references to the economic woes that have beset communities across this state. At town hall meetings in Wilkes-Barre and Scranton, Obama spoke of "wages and income that have flat-lined. You are paying more for everything from college to health care to a gallon of milk to a gallon of gas. It's hard to make ends meet."
He staged a news conference in the freezing drizzle at a biofuels station, drawing attention to high gas prices and the U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Two of his three TV ads target the special interests' grip on the political process. Again and again, he reminded crowds: "We've got to change how business is done in Washington. I'm a practical guy. I just want to solve problems."
Corey D. O'Brien, a Lackawanna County commissioner and Obama backer, had urged the candidate for a month to visit Wilkes-Barre to introduce himself to voters there. In a lengthy question-and-answer session after his opening remarks, Obama fielded queries about his name, his childhood ambitions, and his position on gun rights. O'Brien looked thrilled.
"As Senator Clinton says, this is Hillary country," he said. "People need to get to know him. But I predict that when they do, he'll do very well."
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