Montana's huge black population gives Obama the edge

by kos

Sun May 25, 2008 at 12:29:02 PM PDT

Census numbers:

Black Persons, 2006: 0.4%
White Persons, 2006: 90.8%

The rest are either Latino (2.5%) or Native American (6.4%).

Montana is also the nation's fifth poorest state. It's poor, it's white, and has no African Americans to speak of. Therefore, if what the Clinton campaign and its apologists say is correct, if what the political news media tell me is accurate, Clinton should have another 30-point blowout in store. Right?

Mason-Dixon for Lee Newspapers. 5/19-21. Likely Democratic primary voters. MoE 5% (12/17-19 results)

Obama 52 (17)
Clinton 35 (29)

I expect the Clinton campaign to spin bullshit. It's been the entirety of their campaign now for several months. But it's shocking to me how difficult it has been for the political media to distinguish from Obama's Appalachian problem and his non-existent problems with white voters at large.

Then again we can always ju jitsu this and ask, "Why is Clinton suddenly having a hard time with working class whites? Are they now abandoning her?" Such a question would be bullshit, of course. Obama has always done very well west of the Mississippi, and Clinton poorly outside of the Latino vote in the southwest. But if they want to deal in bullshit, we can always oblige.

M-D also polled general election matchups, and this state, which Kerry lost by 20 points, is a single-digit affair for Obama.

Mason-Dixon for Lee Newspapers. 5/19-21. Likely Democratic primary voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Total Men Wom Rep Dem Ind
McCain (R) 47 50 44 85 12 39
Obama (D) 39 37 41 4 77 41

McCain (R) 51 48 48 91 7 50
Clinton (D) 40 38 42 2 88 33

There's an obvious typo there -- McCain can't be winning both women and men with 48 percent of the vote, and overall 51-40. Regardless, once Obama brings home Democrats to Clinton-like levels, it'll tighten Montana that much more. With his lead among independents and the larger number of undecided Republicans willing to give him a shot, Montana is definitely going to be in play.

And favorability ratings:

McCain: 46 favorable, 35 unfavorable, 19 neutral
Obama: 41 favorable, 38 unfavorable, 21 neutral
Clinton: 29 favorable, 50 unfavorable, 21 neutral

It'll be nice heading into this general election without having to deal with Clinton's sky-high negatives.

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Tags: Barack Obama, president, 2008, Hillary Clinton, John McCain (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions