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Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Edward Snowden, after months of NSA revelations, says his mission’s accomplished


By Barton Gellman, Monday, December 23, 9:12 PM

MOSCOW — The familiar voice on the hotel room phone did not waste words.
“What time does your clock say, exactly?” he asked.
He checked the reply against his watch and described a place to meet.
“I’ll see you there,” he said.
Edward Joseph Snowden emerged at the appointed hour, alone, blending into a light crowd of locals and tourists. He cocked his arm for a handshake, then turned his shoulder to indicate a path. Before long he had guided his visitor to a secure space out of public view.
During more than 14 hours of interviews, the first he has conducted in person since arriving here in June, Snowden did not part the curtains or step outside. Russia granted him temporary asylum on Aug. 1, but Snowden remains a target of surpassing interest to the intelligence services whose secrets he spilled on an epic scale.
Late this spring, Snowden supplied three journalists, including this one, with caches of top- secret documents from the National Security Agency, where he worked as a contractor. Dozens of revelations followed, and then hundreds, as news organizations around the world picked up the story. Congress pressed for explanations, new evidence revived old lawsuits and the Obama administration was obliged to declassify thousands of pages it had fought for years to conceal.
Taken together, the revelations have brought to light a global surveillance system that cast off many of its historical restraints after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Secret legal authorities empowered the NSA to sweep in the telephone, Internet and location records of whole populations. One of the leaked presentation slides described the agency’s “collection philosophy” as “Order one of everything off the menu.”
Six months after the first revelations appeared in The Washington Post and Britain’s Guardian newspaper, Snowden agreed to reflect at length on the roots and repercussions of his choice. He was relaxed and animated over two days of nearly unbroken conversation, fueled by burgers, pasta, ice cream and Russian pastry.
Snowden offered vignettes from his intelligence career and from his recent life as “an indoor cat” in Russia. But he consistently steered the conversation back to surveillance, democracy and the meaning of the documents he exposed.
“For me, in terms of personal satisfaction, the mission’s already accomplished,” he said. “I already won. As soon as the journalists were able to work, everything that I had been trying to do was validated. Because, remember, I didn’t want to change society. I wanted to give society a chance to determine if it should change itself.”
“All I wanted was for the public to be able to have a say in how they are governed,” he said. “That is a milestone we left a long time ago. Right now, all we are looking at are stretch goals.”
‘Going in blind’
Snowden is an orderly thinker, with an engineer’s approach to problem-solving. He had come to believe that a dangerous machine of mass surveillance was growing unchecked. Closed-door oversight by Congress and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court was a “graveyard of judgment,” he said, manipulated by the agency it was supposed to keep in check. Classification rules erected walls to prevent public debate.
Toppling those walls would be a spectacular act of transgression against the norms that prevailed inside them. Someone would have to bypass security, extract the secrets, make undetected contact with journalists and provide them with enough proof to tell the stories.
The NSA’s business is “information dominance,” the use of other people’s secrets to shape events. At 29, Snowden upended the agency on its own turf.
“You recognize that you’re going in blind, that there’s no model,” Snowden said, acknowledging that he had no way to know whether the public would share his views.
“But when you weigh that against the alternative, which is not to act,” he said, “you realize that some analysis is better than no analysis. Because even if your analysis proves to be wrong, the marketplace of ideas will bear that out. If you look at it from an engineering perspective, an iterative perspective, it’s clear that you have to try something rather than do nothing.”
By his own terms, Snowden succeeded beyond plausible ambition. The NSA, accustomed to watching without being watched, faces scrutiny it has not endured since the 1970s, or perhaps ever.
The cascading effects have made themselves felt in Congress, the courts, popular culture, Silicon Valley and world capitals. The basic structure of the Internet itself is now in question, as Brazil and members of the European Union consider measures to keep their data away from U.S. territory and U.S. technology giants including Google, Microsoft and Yahoo take extraordinary steps to block the collection of data by their government.
For months, Obama administration officials attacked Snowden’s motives and said the work of the NSA was distorted by selective leaks and misinterpretations.
On Dec. 16, in a lawsuit that could not have gone forward without the disclosures made possible by Snowden, U.S. District Judge Richard J. Leon described the NSA’s capabilities as “almost Orwellian” and said its bulk collection of U.S. domestic telephone records was probably unconstitutional.
The next day, in the Roosevelt Room, an unusual delegation of executives from old telephone companies and young Internet firms told President Obama that the NSA’s intrusion into their networks was a threat to the U.S. information economy. The following day, an advisory panel appointed by Obama recommended substantial new restrictions on the NSA, including an end to the domestic call-records program.
“This week is a turning point,” said Jesselyn Radack, of the Government Accountability Project, who is one of Snowden’s legal advisers. “It has been just a cascade.”
‘They elected me’
On June 22, the Justice Department unsealed a criminal complaint charging Snowden with espionage and felony theft of government property. It was a dry enumeration of statutes, without a trace of the anger pulsing through Snowden’s former precincts.
In the intelligence and national security establishments, Snowden is widely viewed as a reckless saboteur, and journalists abetting him little less so.
At the Aspen Security Forum in July, a four-star military officer known for his even keel seethed through one meeting alongside a reporter he knew to be in contact with Snowden. Before walking away, he turned and pointed a finger.
“We didn’t have another 9/11,” he said angrily, because intelligence enabled warfighters to find the enemy first. “Until you’ve got to pull the trigger, until you’ve had to bury your people, you don’t have a clue.”
It is commonly said of Snowden that he broke an oath of secrecy, a turn of phrase that captures a sense of betrayal. NSA Director Keith B. Alexander and Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr., among many others, have used that formula.
In his interview with The Post, Snowden noted matter-of-factly that Standard Form 312, the ­classified-information nondisclosure agreement, is a civil contract. He signed it, but he pledged his fealty elsewhere.
“The oath of allegiance is not an oath of secrecy,” he said. “That is an oath to the Constitution. That is the oath that I kept that Keith Alexander and James Clapper did not.”
People who accuse him of disloyalty, he said, mistake his purpose.
“I am not trying to bring down the NSA, I am working to improve the NSA,” he said. “I am still working for the NSA right now. They are the only ones who don’t realize it.”
What entitled Snowden, now 30, to take on that responsibility?
“That whole question — who elected you? — inverts the model,” he said. “They elected me. The overseers.”
He named the chairmen of the Senate and House intelligence committees.
Dianne Feinstein elected me when she asked softball questions” in committee hearings, he said. “Mike Rogers elected me when he kept these programs hidden. . . . The FISA court elected me when they decided to legislate from the bench on things that were far beyond the mandate of what that court was ever intended to do. The system failed comprehensively, and each level of oversight, each level of responsibility that should have addressed this, abdicated their responsibility.”
“It wasn’t that they put it on me as an individual — that I’m uniquely qualified, an angel descending from the heavens — as that they put it on someone, somewhere,” he said. “You have the capability, and you realize every other [person] sitting around the table has the same capability but they don’t do it. So somebody has to be the first.”
‘Front-page test’
Snowden grants that NSA employees by and large believe in their mission and trust the agency to handle the secrets it takes from ordinary people — deliberately, in the case of bulk records collection, and “incidentally,” when the content of American phone calls and e-mails are swept into NSA systems along with foreign targets.
But Snowden also said acceptance of the agency’s operations was not universal. He began to test that proposition more than a year ago, he said, in periodic conversations with co-workers and superiors that foreshadowed his emerging plan.
Beginning in October 2012, he said, he brought his misgivings to two superiors in the NSA’s Technology Directorate and two more in the NSA Threat Operations Center’s regional base in Hawaii. For each of them, and 15 other co-workers, Snowden said he opened a data query tool called BOUNDLESSINFORMANT, which used color-coded “heat maps” to depict the volume of data ingested by NSA taps.
His colleagues were often “astonished to learn we are collecting more in the United States on Americans than we are on Russians in Russia,” he said. Many of them were troubled, he said, and several said they did not want to know any more.
“I asked these people, ‘What do you think the public would do if this was on the front page?’ ” he said. He noted that critics have accused him of bypassing internal channels of dissent. “How is that not reporting it? How is that not raising it?” he said.
By last December, Snowden was contacting reporters, although he had not yet passed along any classified information. He continued to give his colleagues the “front-page test,” he said, until April.
Asked about those conversations, NSA spokeswoman Vanee Vines sent a prepared statement to The Post: “After extensive investigation, including interviews with his former NSA supervisors and co-workers, we have not found any evidence to support Mr. Snowden’s contention that he brought these matters to anyone’s attention.”
Snowden recounted another set of conversations that he said took place three years earlier, when he was sent by the NSA’s Technology Directorate to support operations at a listening post in Japan. As a system administrator, he had full access to security and auditing controls. He said he saw serious flaws with information security.
“I actually recommended they move to two-man control for administrative access back in 2009,” he said, first to his supervisor in Japan and then to the directorate’s chief of operations in the Pacific. “Sure, a whistleblower could use these things, but so could a spy.”
That precaution, which requires a second set of credentials to perform risky operations such as copying files onto a removable drive, has been among the principal security responses to the Snowden affair.
Vines, the NSA spokeswoman, said there was no record of those conversations, either.
U.S. ‘would cease to exist’
Just before releasing the documents this spring, Snowden made a final review of the risks. He had overcome what he described at the time as a “selfish fear” of the consequences for himself.
“I said to you the only fear [left] is apathy — that people won’t care, that they won’t want change,” he recalled this month.
The documents leaked by Snowden compelled attention because they revealed to Americans a history they did not know they had.
Internal briefing documents reveled in the “Golden Age of Electronic Surveillance.” Brawny cover names such as MUSCULAR, TUMULT and TURMOIL boasted of the agency’s prowess.
With assistance from private communications firms, the NSA had learned to capture enormous flows of data at the speed of light from fiber-optic cables that carried Internet and telephone traffic over continents and under seas. According to one document in Snowden’s cache, the agency’s Special Source Operations group, which as early as 2006 was said to be ingesting “one Library of Congress every 14.4 seconds,” had an official seal that might have been parody: an eagle with all the world’s cables in its grasp.
Each year, NSA systems collected hundreds of millions of e-mail address books, hundreds of billions of cellphone location records and trillions of domestic call logs.
Most of that data, by definition and intent, belonged to ordinary people suspected of nothing. But vast new storage capacity and processing tools enabled the NSA to use the information to map human relationships on a planetary scale. Only this way, its leadership believed, could the NSA reach beyond its universe of known intelligence targets.
In the view of the NSA, signals intelligence, or electronic eavesdropping, was a matter of life and death, “without which America would cease to exist as we know it,” according to an internal presentation in the first week of October 2001 as the agency ramped up its response to the al-Qaeda attacks on New York and Washington.
With stakes such as those, there was no capability the NSA believed it should leave on the table. The agency followed orders from President George W. Bush to begin domestic collection without authority from Congress and the courts. When the NSA won those authorities later, some of them under secret interpretations of laws passed by Congress between 2007 and 2012, the Obama administration went further still.
Using PRISM, the cover name for collection of user data from Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Apple and five other U.S.-based companies, the NSA could obtain all communications to or from any specified target. The companies had no choice but to comply with the government's request for data.
But the NSA could not use PRISM, which was overseen once a year by the surveillance court, for the collection of virtually all data handled by those companies. To widen its access, it teamed up with its British counterpart, Government Communications Headquarters, or GCHQ, to break into the private fiber-optic links that connected Google and Yahoo data centers around the world.
That operation, which used the cover name MUSCULAR, tapped into U.S. company data from outside U.S. territory. The NSA therefore believed it did not need permission from Congress or judicial oversight. Data from hundreds of millions of U.S. accounts flowed over those Google and Yahoo links, but classified rules allowed the NSA to presume that data ingested overseas belonged to foreigners.
‘Persistent threat’
Disclosure of the MUSCULAR project enraged and galvanized U.S. technology executives. They believed the NSA had lawful access to their front doors — and had broken down the back doors anyway.
Microsoft general counsel Brad Smith took to his company’s blog and called the NSA an “advanced persistent threat” — the worst of all fighting words in U.S. cybersecurity circles, generally reserved for Chinese state-sponsored hackers and sophisticated criminal enterprises.
“For the industry as a whole, it caused everyone to ask whether we knew as much as we thought,” Smith recalled in an interview. “It underscored the fact that while people were confident that the U.S. government was complying with U.S. laws for activity within U.S. territory, perhaps there were things going on outside the United States . . . that made this bigger and more complicated and more disconcerting than we knew.”
They wondered, he said, if the NSA was “collecting proprietary information from the companies themselves.”
Led by Google and then Yahoo, one company after another announced expensive plans to encrypt its data traffic over tens of thousands of miles of cable. It was a direct — in some cases, explicit — blow to NSA collection of user data in bulk. If the NSA wanted the information, it would have to request it or circumvent the encryption one target at a time.
As these projects are completed, the Internet will become a less friendly place for the NSA to work. The agency can still collect data from virtually any one, but collecting from everyone will be harder.
The industry’s response, Smith acknowledged, was driven by a business threat. U.S. companies could not afford to be seen as candy stores for U.S. intelligence. But the principle of the thing, Smith said, “is fundamentally about ensuring that customer data is turned over to governments pursuant to valid legal orders and in accordance with constitutional principles.”
‘Warheads on foreheads’
Snowden has focused on much the same point from the beginning: Individual targeting would cure most of what he believes is wrong with the NSA.
Six months ago, a reporter asked him by encrypted e-mail why Americans would want the NSA to give up bulk collection if that would limit a useful intelligence tool.
“I believe the cost of frank public debate about the powers of our government is less than the danger posed by allowing these powers to continue growing in secret,” he replied, calling them “a direct threat to democratic governance.”
In the Moscow interview, Snowden said, “What the government wants is something they never had before,” adding: “They want total awareness. The question is, is that something we should be allowing?”
Snowden likened the NSA’s powers to those used by British authorities in Colonial America, when “general warrants” allowed anyone to be searched. The FISA court, Snowden said, “is authorizing general warrants for the entire country’s metadata.”
“The last time that happened, we fought a war over it,” he said.
Technology, of course, has enabled a great deal of consumer surveillance by private companies, as well. The difference with the NSA’s possession of the data, Snowden said, is that government has the power to take away life or freedom.
At the NSA, he said, “there are people in the office who joke about, ‘We put warheads on foreheads.’ Twitter doesn’t put warheads on foreheads.”
Privacy, as Snowden sees it, is a universal right, applicable to American and foreign surveillance alike.
“I don’t care whether you’re the pope or Osama bin Laden,” he said. “As long as there’s an individualized, articulable, probable cause for targeting these people as legitimate foreign intelligence, that’s fine. I don’t think it’s imposing a ridiculous burden by asking for probable cause. Because, you have to understand, when you have access to the tools the NSA does, probable cause falls out of trees.”
‘Everybody knows’
On June 29, Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union’s counterterrorism coordinator, awoke to a report in Der Spiegel that U.S. intelligence had broken into E.U. offices, including his, to implant surveillance devices.
The 56-year-old Belgian, whose work is often classified, did not consider himself naive. But he took the news personally, and more so when he heard unofficial explanations from Washington.
“ ‘Everybody knows. Everybody does’ — Keith Alexander said that,” de Kerchove said in an interview. “I don’t like the idea that the NSA will put bugs in my office. No. I don’t like it. No. Between allies? No. I’m surprised that people find that noble.”
Comparable reactions, expressed less politely in private, accompanied revelations that the NSA had tapped the cellphones of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil. The blowback roiled relations with both allies, among others. Rousseff canceled a state dinner with Obama in September.
When it comes to spying on allies, by Snowden’s lights, the news is not always about the target.
“It’s the deception of the government that’s revealed,” Snowden said, noting that the Obama administration offered false public assurances following the initial reports about NSA surveillance in Germany “The U.S. government said: ‘We follow German laws in Germany. We never target German citizens.’ And then the story comes out and it’s: ‘What are you talking about? You’re spying on the chancellor.’ You just lied to the entire country, in front of Congress.”
In private, U.S. intelligence officials still maintain that spying among friends is routine for all concerned, but they are giving greater weight to the risk of getting caught.
“There are many things we do in intelligence that, if revealed, would have the potential for all kinds of blowback,” Clapper told a House panel in October.
‘They will make mistakes’
U.S. officials say it is obvious that Snowden’s disclosures will do grave harm to intelligence gathering, exposing methods that adversaries will learn to avoid.
“We’re seeing al-Qaeda and related groups start to look for ways to adjust how they communicate,” said Matthew Olsen, director of the National Counterterrorism Center and a former general counsel at the NSA.
Other officials, who declined to speak on the record about particulars, said they had watched some of their surveillance targets, in effect, changing channels. That evidence can be read another way, they acknowledged, given that the NSA managed to monitor the shift.
Clapper has said repeatedly in public that the leaks did great damage, but in private he has taken a more nuanced stance. A review of early damage assessments in previous espionage cases, he said in one closed-door briefing this fall, found that dire forecasts of harm were seldom borne out.
“People must communicate,” he said, according to one participant who described the confidential meeting on the condition of anonymity. “They will make mistakes and we will exploit them.”
According to senior intelligence officials, two uncertainties feed their greatest concerns. One is whether Russia or China managed to take the Snowden archive from his computer, a worst-case assumption for which three officials acknowledged there is no evidence.
In a previous assignment, Snowden taught U.S. intelligence personnel how to operate securely in a “high-threat digital environment,” using a training scenario in which China was the designated threat. He declined to discuss the whereabouts the files now, but he said he is confident he did not expose them to Chinese intelligence in Hong Kong and did not bring them to Russia at all.
“There’s nothing on it,” he said, turning his laptop screen toward his visitor. “My hard drive is completely blank.”
The other big question is how many documents Snowden took. The NSA’s incoming deputy director, Rick Ledgett, said on CBS’s “60 Minutes” recently that the number may approach 1.7 million, a huge and unexplained spike over previous estimates. Ledgett said he would favor trying to negotiate an amnesty with Snowden in exchange for “assurances that the remainder of the data could be secured.”
Obama's national security adviser, Susan E. Rice, later dismissed the possibility.
“The government knows where to find us if they want to have a productive conversation about resolutions that don’t involve Edward Snowden behind bars,” said Ben Wizner of the American Civil Liberties Union, the central figure on Snowden’s legal team.
Some news accounts have quoted U.S. government officials as saying Snowden has arranged for the automated release of sensitive documents if he is arrested or harmed. There are strong reasons to doubt that, beginning with Snowden’s insistence, to this reporter and others, that he does not want the documents published in bulk.
If Snowden were fool enough to rig a “dead man’s switch,” confidants said, he would be inviting anyone who wants the documents to kill him.
Asked about such a mechanism in the Moscow interview, Snowden made a face and declined to reply. Later, he sent an encrypted message. “That sounds more like a suicide switch,” he wrote. “It wouldn’t make sense.”
‘Let them say
what they want’
By temperament and circumstance, Snowden is a reticent man, reluctant to discuss details about his personal life.
Over two days his guard never dropped, but he allowed a few fragments to emerge. He is an “ascetic,” he said. He lives off ramen noodles and chips. He has visitors, and many of them bring books. The books pile up, unread. The Internet is an endless library and a window on the progress of his cause.
“It has always been really difficult to get me to leave the house,” he said. “I just don’t have a lot of needs. . . . Occasionally there’s things to go do, things to go see, people to meet, tasks to accomplish. But it’s really got to be goal-oriented, you know. Otherwise, as long as I can sit down and think and write and talk to somebody, that’s more meaningful to me than going out and looking at landmarks.”
In hope of keeping focus on the NSA, Snowden has ignored attacks on himself.
“Let them say what they want,” he said. “It’s not about me.”
Former NSA and CIA director Michael V. Hayden predicted that Snowden will waste away in Moscow as an alcoholic, like other “defectors.” To this, Snowden shrugged. He does not drink at all. Never has.
But Snowden knows his presence here is easy ammunition for critics. He did not choose refuge in Moscow as a final destination. He said that once the U.S. government voided his passport as he tried to change planes en route to Latin America, he had no other choice.
It would be odd if Russian authorities did not keep an eye on him, but no retinue accompanied Snowden and his visitor saw no one else nearby. Snowden neither tried to communicate furtively nor asked that a visitor do so. He has had continuous Internet access and talked to his lawyers and journalists daily, from his first day in the transit lounge at Sheremetyevo airport.
“There is no evidence at all for the claim that I have loyalties to Russia or China or any country other than the United States,” he said. “I have no relationship with the Russian government. I have not entered into any agreements with them.”
“If I defected at all,” Snowden said, “I defected from the government to the public.”

Julie Tate contributed to this report.

Friday, December 20, 2013

N.S.A. Dragnet Included Allies, Aid Groups and Business Elite




Secret documents reveal more than 1,000 targets of American and British surveillance in recent years, including the office of an Israeli prime minister, heads of international aid organizations, foreign energy companies and a European Union official involved in antitrust battles with American technology businesses.
While the names of some political and diplomatic leaders have previously emerged as targets, the newly disclosed intelligence documents provide a much fuller portrait of the spies’ sweeping interests in more than 60 countries.
Britain’s General Communications Headquarters, working closely with the National Security Agency, monitored the communications of senior European Union officials, foreign leaders including African heads of state and sometimes their family members, directors of United Nations and other relief programs, and officials overseeing oil and finance ministries, according to the documents. In addition to Israel, some targets involve close allies like France and Germany, where tensions have already erupted over recent revelations about spying by the N.S.A.
Details of the surveillance are described in documents from the N.S.A. and Britain’s eavesdropping agency, known as GCHQ, dating from 2008 to 2011. The target lists appear in a set of GCHQ reports that sometimes identify which agency requested the surveillance, but more often do not. The documents were leaked by the former N.S.A. contractor Edward J. Snowden and shared by The New York Times, The Guardian and Der Spiegel.
The reports are spare, technical bulletins produced as the spies, typically working out of British intelligence sites, systematically tapped one international communications link after another, focusing especially on satellite transmissions. The value of each link is gauged, in part, by the number of surveillance targets found to be using it for emails, text messages or phone calls. More than 1,000 targets, which also include suspected terrorists or militants, are in the reports.
It is unclear what the eavesdroppers gleaned. The documents include a few fragmentary transcripts of conversations and messages, but otherwise contain only hints that further information was available elsewhere, possibly in a larger database.
Some of the surveillance relates to issues examined by an advisory panel in Washington, which on Wednesday recommended stricter limits on the N.S.A., including restrictions on spying on foreign leaders, particularly allies. In a response to questions by The Times, the N.S.A. said that it was reviewing how it coordinates with allies on spying. A GCHQ spokesman said that its policy was not to comment on intelligence matters, but that the agency “takes its obligations under the law very seriously.”
The reports show that spies monitored the email traffic of several Israeli officials, including one target identified as “Israeli prime minister,” followed by an email address. The prime minister at the time of the interception, in January 2009, was Ehud Olmert. The following month, spies intercepted the email traffic of the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, according to another report.
The ministerial email addresses in the reports have been listed publicly for years, but it is unclear whether they were used primarily by staff members in the ministerial offices or by the officials themselves. Two Israeli embassies also appear on the target lists.
Despite the close ties between the United States and Israel, the record of mutual spying is long: Israeli spies, including Jonathan Jay Pollard, who was sentenced in 1987 to life in prison for passing intelligence information to Israel, have often operated in the United States, and the United States has often turned the capabilities of the N.S.A. against Israel.
The interception of Mr. Olmert’s email occurred while he was dealing with fallout from Israel’s military response to rocket attacks from Gaza, but also at a particularly tense time in relations with the United States. The two countries were simultaneously at odds on Israeli preparations to attack Iran’s nuclear program and cooperating in an entirely new area: the design and launching of a wave of cyberattacks on Iran’s major nuclear enrichment facility. That operation, code-named Olympic Games, involved a close partnership among the C.I.A., the N.S.A. and its Israeli equivalent, Unit 8200.
A year before the interception of Mr. Olmert’s email, the documents listed another target, the Institute of Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, an internationally recognized center for research in atomic and nuclear physics.
Also appearing on the surveillance lists is Joaquín Almunia, vice president of the European Commission, which, among other powers, has oversight of antitrust issues in Europe. The commission has broad authority over local and foreign companies, and has punished a number of American companies, including Microsoft and Intel, with heavy fines for hampering fair competition. The reports say that spies intercepted Mr. Almunia’s communications in 2008 and 2009.
Mr. Almunia, a Spaniard, assumed direct authority over the commission’s antitrust office in 2010. He has been involved in a three-year standoff with Google over how the company runs its search engine. Competitors of the online giant had complained that it was prioritizing its own search results and using content like travel reviews and ratings from other websites without permission. While pushing for a settlement with Google, Mr. Almunia has warned that the company could face large fines if it does not cooperate.
The surveillance reports do not specify whether the interceptions of Mr. Almunia’s communications were requested by the N.S.A. or British spies. Nor do the reports make clear whether he was a longstanding surveillance target or swept up as part of a fleeting operation. Contacted by The New York Times, Mr. Almunia said he was “strongly upset” about the spying.
In a statement, the N.S.A. denied that it had ever carried out espionage to benefit American businesses.
“We do not use our foreign intelligence capabilities to steal the trade secrets of foreign companies on behalf of — or give intelligence we collect to — U.S. companies to enhance their international competitiveness or increase their bottom line,” said Vanee Vines, an N.S.A. spokeswoman.
But she added that some economic spying was justified by national security needs. “The intelligence community’s efforts to understand economic systems and policies, and monitor anomalous economic activities, are critical to providing policy makers with the information they need to make informed decisions that are in the best interest of our national security,” Ms. Vines said.
At the request of the GCHQ, The Times agreed to withhold some details from the documents because of security concerns.
The surveillance reports show American and British spies’ deep appetite for information. The French companies Total, the oil and gas giant, and Thales, an electronics, logistics and transportation outfit, appear as targets, as do a French ambassador, an “Estonian Skype security team” and the German Embassy in Rwanda.
Germany is especially sensitive about American spying since reports emerged that the agency listened to Prime Minister Angela Merkel’s cellphone calls. Negotiations for a proposed agreement between Germany and the United States on spying rules have recently stalled for several reasons, including the refusal of the United States to guarantee that it would never spy on German officials other than the prime minister.
Multiple United Nations missions in Geneva are listed as targets, including the United Nations Children’s Fund, or Unicef, and the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. So isMédecins du Monde, a medical relief organization that goes into war-ravaged areas. Leigh Daynes, an executive director of the organization in Britain, responded to news about the surveillance by saying: “There is absolutely no reason for our operations to be secretly monitored.”
More obvious intelligence targets are also listed, though in smaller numbers, including people identified as “Israeli grey arms dealer,” “Taleban ministry of refugee affairs” and “various entities in Beijing.” Some of those included are described as possible members of Al Qaeda, and as suspected extremists or jihadists.
While few if any American citizens appear to be named in the documents, they make clear that some of the intercepted communications either began or ended in the United States and that N.S.A. facilities carried out interceptions around the world in collaboration with their British partners. Some of the interceptions appear to have been made at the Sugar Grove, Va., listening post run by the N.S.A. and code-named Timberline, and some are explicitly tied to N.S.A. target lists in the reports.
Many of the reports, written by British teams specializing in Sigint, shorthand for “signals intelligence,” are called “Bude Sigint Development Reports,” referring to a British spy campus on the Cornwall coast. The reports often reveal which countries were the endpoints for the intercepted communications, and information on which satellite was carrying the traffic.
Strengthening the likelihood that full transcripts were taken during the intercepts is the case of Mohamed Ibn Chambas, an official of the Economic Community of West African States, known as Ecowas, a regional initiative of 15 countries that promotes economic and industrial activity. Whether intentionally or through some oversight, when Mr. Chambas’s communications were intercepted in August 2009, dozens of his complete text messages were copied into one of the reports.
Referred to in the transcripts as “Dr. Chambers,” he seems to have been monitored during an especially humdrum day or two of travel. “Am glad yr day was satisfying,” Mr. Chambas texted one acquaintance. “I spent my whole day travelling... Had to go from Abidjan to Accra to catch a flt to Monrovia... The usual saga of intra afr.”
Later he recommended a book, “A Colonial History of Northern Ghana,” to the same person. “Interesting and informative,” Mr. Chambas texted. The high point of his day was receiving an award in Liberia, but soon he was busy working out logistics for future appointments.
“Where is the conference pl? Didnt get the invt,” he texted another contact. He discussed further details before adding, perhaps wistfully, given his grinding travel schedule: “Have a restful Sunday.”

Katrin Bennhold contributed reporting from London, David E. Sanger from Washington and Ethan Bronner from New York.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Vers un séisme au Moyen-Orient ? Les coulisses de l’accord historique USA-Iran



18 décembre 2013

Les ennemis héréditaires qu'étaient l'Iran et les Etats-Unis ont conclu un accord historique dont les répercussions pour la région et pour le monde entier sont importantes. Marc Vandepitte a étudié la portée de l'accord et les intérêts qu'il dissimule.

Des ennemis jurés devenus des alliés

Le 24 novembre dernier, les Etats-Unis et l'Iran concluaient un accord historique. En échange d'une réduction des sanctions, l'Iran va restreindre et laisser contrôler son programme nucléaire. Le simple fait que les ministres des Affaires étrangères des deux pays ont voulu se rencontrer ouvertement était encore impensable il y a quelques mois, et certainement pas au début de la république islamique.
Ces soixante dernières années, les relations entre les deux pays ont été particulièrement tumultueuses. En 1953, voulant prendre le contrôle des richesses pétrolières iraniennes, les Etats-Unis et la Grande-Bretagne aidèrent à renverser le gouvernement élu de Mossadegh. Le shah régna d'une main d'acier avec l'appui des Etats-Unis. Il dut finalement abandonner le pouvoir à la révolution islamique en 1979 . Peu après cette révolution, les Etats-Unis subirent l'assaut de leur ambassade et la prise en otage de son personnel.
Depuis, l'Iran et les Etats-Unis sont ennemis jurés. Au début des années '80, quand l'Irak assaillit au gaz toxique des centaines de milliers d'Iraniens, notamment originaires des Etats-Unis, la Maison Blanche fit mine de regarder ailleurs. En 1983 l'armée des Etats-Unis fut chassée du Liban par un attentat à la bombe meurtrier qui tua 241 marines. Derrière l'attentat il y avait le Hezbollah, le plus proche allié de l'Iran au Liban. En 1986 le président Reagan perdit la face à cause du scandale de l'Irangate. Après le 11 septembre, l'Iran se retrouva sur la liste de « l'Axe du Mal » (1).
En 2003 l'invasion de l'Irak redistribua les cartes dans la région. Saddam Hussein, principal adversaire de l'Iran, fut éliminé, et les chiites parvinrent au pouvoir. L'Irak n'était plus un ennemi héréditaire, mais un allié. A ce moment, l'Iran avait déjà pas mal d'influence en Syrie, au Liban ( Hezbollah) et en Palestine (Hamas). A l'inverse, les Etats-Unis perdirent graduellement leur emprise sur l'Irak. L'hégémonie régionale pencha en direction de Téhéran.
Ce n'est pas un hasard si la controverse à propos du programme nucléaire de l'Iran a commencé à cette période. La question nucléaire était par excellence le levier de Washington pour restreindre l'influence croissante de l'Iran et mettre le pays à genoux.
L'Iran n'a jamais eu - et n'a toujours pas - l'intention de développer une bombe atomique à court terme (2). Acquérir une arme nucléaire n'est pas un objectif essentiel pour les dirigeants iraniens. En outre, le pays n'est pas en état d'y parvenir rapidement. Il ne dispose pas de suffisamment d'uranium appauvri et n'a pas non plus de missile fiables d'une portée suffisante, pas plus qu'une force aérienne assez équipée pour pouvoir atteindre Israël. Si c'était le cas, Israël aurait bombardé les installations nucléaires depuis longtemps (3).
Le première résolution des Nations Unies concernant le programme nucléaire de l'Iran date de juillet 2006. Depuis, Washington a tout fait pour isoler le pays et le ruiner. En 2003 puis encore en 2009, l'Iran avait présenté des propositions pour parvenir à un accord avec les Etats-Unis, mais Washington avait refusé dans les deux cas (4). Finalement ils y sont tout de même arrivés ...
Ce n'est pas la première fois que Washington conclut un pacte avec « le diable ». Roosevelt a collaboré (temporairement) avec Staline pour abattre l'Allemagne nazie et Nixon, après la défaite au Vietnam, a conclu un accord avec Mao pour affaiblir l'Union Soviétique.
En géopolitique, les principes ou l'idéologie ne jouent pas un rôle important, il s'agit des intérêts purs et durs. C'est le cas ici, une fois encore. Jetons un œil sur ces intérêts et sur la question de savoir pourquoi les deux partenaires ont pris un tel virage et pourquoi maintenant. Nous verrons aussi quels avantages les deux pays tentent de tirer de cet accord.

Mobiles des Etats-Unis

Commençons par les Etats-Unis. Cinq facteurs au moins expliquent pourquoi Washington essayait d'avoir un accord et une collaboration avec Téhéran.

Surexploitation

Le premier gouvernement Bush était un vrai cabinet de guerre (5). Il voulait faire plier des pays indisciplinés du Moyen-Orient et d'Afrique. Après le 11 septembre l'objectif des cinq années à venir était, après la conquête de l'Afghanistan, « de détruire » sept autres gouvernements : l'Irak, la Syrie, le Liban, la Libye, la Somalie, le Soudan en l'Iran. Mais l'Afghanistan et l'Irak débouchèrent sur un fiasco militaire. En outre ils furent une vraie catastrophe économique. A eux deux ils ont coûté plus du double de la guerre contre le Vietnam (6).
La guerre contre le terrorisme, ce fut manifestement un pont trop loin pour les Etats-Unis. La désillusion fut immense et Obama fut élu avec la promesse de se retirer d'Irak et d'Afghanistan. Dans le même contexte, une attaque militaire contre la Syrie fut finalement annulée (7).

Moins d'intérêt pour le Moyen-Orient

Jusqu'à très récemment le Moyen-Orient avait une importance vitale pour l'approvisionnement pétrolier des Etats-Unis. Mais c'est de moins en moins le cas, grâce au développement propre du gaz de schiste et des sables bitumineux, ainsi qu'à l'exploitation des grandes réserves de pétrole au Canada. Les Etats-Unis sont actuellement le producteur de pétrole et de gaz ayant la plus forte croissance au monde. L'importation de pétrole moyen-oriental va diminuer de près de 40 % entre 2011 et 2017. Vers 2020, ils seront exportateurs nets de gaz naturel (8).

Focus sur la Chine

En 1992, un an après la chute de l'Union Soviétique, le Pentagone déclarait : « Notre premier objectif est d'empêcher qu'un nouveau rival n'apparaisse sur la scène mondiale. Nous devons détourner les concurrents potentiels même desimplement chercher à jouer un rôle plus important au niveau régional ou mondial ». C'est la doctrine qui a été maintenue, quel que soit le président (9).

Aujourd'hui, cela fait penser en premier lieu à la Chine. Pour Hillary Clinton, l'attention stratégique des USA devait se déplacer vers l'Océan Pacifique : “L'avenir de la politique se décidera en Asie, pas en Afghanistan ou en Irak. Et les Etats-Unis se trouveront exactement au centre de l'action”. Dans un débat télévisé avec Romney, Obama était déjà plus explicite, il qualifiait la Chine d'adversaire (10).

Ce ne sont pas simplement des mots. Tout autour de la Chine, les USA ont des troupes, des bases militaires, des points d'appui ou des centres d'entraînement dans 17 pays ou territoires maritimes : Tadjikistan, Kirghizie, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Mer d'Arabie, Océan Indien, Détroit de Malacca, Australie, Philippines, Océan Pacifique, Taïwan, Corée du Sud, Inde, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Népal et Malaisie. De nouvelles bases sont prévues en Thaïlande, au Vietnam et aux Philippines. Il existe une collaboration militaire avec la Mongolie, l'Ouzbékistan, l'Indonésie et récemment aussi avec la Birmanie. D'ici 2020, 60% de la flotte sera stationnée dans la région. Si l'on examine une carte il n'est pas exagéré de poser que la Chine est militairement encerclée (11).

Carte

Une radicalisation menaçante

Un quatrième facteur est la radicalisation des djihadistes sunnites dans la région. En Syrie, des milices extrémistes ont pris la main et les Etats-Unis ont très peu de prise sur elles (12). En Irak, 5.000 personnes ont déjà été assassinées par Al-Qaida rien que les 6 premiers mois de l'année. Au Liban aussi, la situation risque de devenir incontrôlable(13).

Dans le passé, le Pentagone a déjà souvent collaboré étroitement avec des groupes islamiques extrémistes. Ce fut le cas en Afghanistan dans les années '80, en Bosnie dans les années '90, un peu plus tard au Kossovo et récemment en Lybie et en Syrie. Mais cela à condition que les Etats-Unis gardent l'avantage. Washington veut bien aider à faire tomber le gouvernement pro-iranien au Liban et en Syrie, mais pas pour renforcer les djihadistes transnationaux, encore moins pour se faire taper sur les doigt par les émirats fondamentalistes. La Jordanie devrait suivre rapidement, et dans ce cas Israël serait entouré de régimes extrémistes. C'est un scénario de cauchemar (14). Aux yeux de Washington, les extrémistes sunnites sont devenus un facteur trop peu contrôlé et donc risqué dans la région.

Des alliés régionaux 

Un cinquième facteur concerne les alliés régionaux des Etats-Unis. Après le « printemps arabe », un certain nombre de régimes autocratiques de la région sont devenus des partenaires douteux ou affaiblis. C'est le cas en premier lieu de l'Egypte, mais aussi du Yémen, de la Jordanie, de Bahrein et de la Tunisie. Cela vaut également pour l'Arabie Saoudite, qui en outre se trouve devant un délicat passage de générations (15).

Washington avait espéré que le Pakistan serait un appui important pour contrôler la situation en Afghanistan après le départ de la majorité des troupes. Mais la guerre a fortement affaibli le Pakistan et le pays doit aussi encaisser une forte déstabilisation intérieure à cause des djihadistes (16).

Ensuite il y a l'Afghanistan et l'Irak. Dans ces deux pays, des régimes partisans des USA ont été mis en selle. Mais il apparaît qu'ils ne sont pas aussi dociles qu'espéré. Ils suivent de plus en plus leur propre cap, indépendamment de la Maison Blanche et parfois carrément contre elle. C'est ainsi que l'Irak a refusé d'ouvrir son espace aérien aux Etats-Unis pour bombarder l a Syrie tandis que les Iraniens peuvent s'en servir tranquillement pour assister l'armée syrienne (17).


Avantages pour les Etats-Unis

C'est la conjonction de ces cinq facteurs qui explique pourquoi les USA ont cherché un rapprochement avec l'Iran. Ils ne sont plus en mesure de dominer unilatéralement le monde entier ni de choisir et de contrôler leurs alliés à la carte. Doser et équilibrer, voilà le message. Zbigniew Brzezinski, super-conseiller de différents présidents des Etats-Unis et chef d'orchestre de la politique étrangère de Washington en ce moment, l'exprime en ces termes : « La nouvelle réalité c'est qu'aucune grande puissance n'est en mesure de « dominer » l'Eurasie et donc de « commander » le monde. Le rôle de l'Amérique, en particulier après avoir perdu vingt années, doit maintenant être plus subtil et jouer davantage sur les nouveaux rapports de force en Eurasie » (18).

Grâce à l'accord conclu avec l'Iran, Washington obtient davantage d'espace (militaire) pour se concentrer sur d'autres régions, en particulier sur la région de l'Océan Pacifique (19). Ce n'est pas que les USA veuillent se retirer de la région, mais ils ne veulent pas conserver une trop forte empreinte militaire, qui serait inutile et les empêcherait d'atteindre d'autres objectifs prioritaires (20).

Une collaboration avec l'Iran leur permettra mieux de maîtriser la situation en Syrie, en particulier la menace djihadiste. Cela vaut également pour la situation en Afghanistan après le retrait d'une grande partie des soldats US en 2014 (21). Le soutien de Téhéran est également indispensable pour améliorer la situation en Irak, au Liban t en Palestine (22). Enfin la collaboration avec l'Iran fera diminuer l'influence de la Russie dans la région après le 11 septembre. C'est toujours ça de gagné pour Washington (23).

Ce ne serait pas la première fois que Téhéran et Washington collaborent pour contrer des djihadistes extrémistes. C'est déjà arrivé en Irak et en Afghanistan, respectivement contre Al Qaïda et les Talibans. Mais il s'agissait à chaque fois d'une collaboration tactique qui ne changeait rien à l'attitude globalement hostile entre eux et n'avait pas d'impact sur les alliances des Etats-Unis dans la région. Cette fois-ci nous avons à faire avec une collaboration stratégique qui redistribue les cartes au Moyen-Orient (24).

Par cette approche les Etats-Unis cherchent un équilibre stratégique entre Chiites et Sunnites. Aucun des deux camps ne peut devenir assez puissant que pour avoir le dessus. Un islam divisé dont les pôles assurent l'équilibre et se neutralisent jouent parfaitement le jeu d'Israël et des Etats-Unis. C'est la stratégie « diviser pour régner », qui a si bien fait ses preuves (25).


Avantages pour l'Iran

L'invasion de l'Irak n'a pas seulement été une défaite pour les Etats-Unis, elle a fait basculer les rapports de force régionaux au profit de Téhéran. L'Irak, principal pays chiite après l'Iran, est tombé dans la sphère d'influence de Téhéran. La Syrie et le Liban se trouvaient déjà dans cette sphère, et à Gaza aussi Téhéran faisait valoir son influence via le Hamas. Le pays s'est développé en grande puissance régionale. Le Président Ahmadinejad (2005-2013) a mené une politique étrangère radicale et assurée (26).

Trois facteurs sapent cette position renforcée : la guerre en Syrie, la situation en Irak et les sanctions économiques.

La guerre en Syrie

La Syrie est la ligne de front de la lutte sunno-chiite au sein de l'islam, avec en gros d'un côté l'Iran perse et de l'autre les sunnites des pays arabes et de Turquie. A cet égard il est évident que l'Iran fait tout pour maintenir en place le règne d'Assad. Mais cette guerre coûte cher à ce pays qui ploie sous l'embargo économique, un montant qu'on évalue à environ 9 milliards de dollars par an (27).

En outre, la guerre civile en Syrie évolue dans une direction fâcheuse. Tolérés ou soutenus par les états du Golfe et la Turquie, les djihadistes radicaux ont rapidement pris l'avantage au sein des milices. La Syrie est devenue un vivier de combattants islamiques sunnites ultra-radicaux bien entraînés et bien organisés. Ceci est extrêmement alarmant pour Téhéran, d'autant plus que ce foyer extrémiste menace de s'étendre vers le Liban (28).

Le chaos en Irak

En Irak, la situation évolue défavorablement pour Téhéran. Lentement mais sûrement, le pays tombe en morceaux, et le premier Ministre chiite Maliki n'a plus guère de contrôle sur son pays. Au nord, le Kurdistan est semi-indépendant. Dans beaucoup de villes au centre du pays l'armée s'est retirée et les sunnites radicaux font la loi. Dans son combat contre al Qaïda, Maliki a conclu une alliance avec les chefs de clans les plus sunnites, mais ceux-ci viennent de renoncer à cette alliance. Le gouvernement central n'a plus la maîtrise totale que dans le sud chiite (29).

La forte sphère d'influence sur laquelle avait tablé Téhéran n'est finalement pas arrivée. Avec la guerre en Syrie et la montée de djihadistes radicaux en Irak, au contraire l'Iran est sur la défensive. Depuis 2003 le pays est encerclé par des troupes US ou des djihadistes radicaux.

Carte (30)

Les sanctions économiques

Depuis 2006 les Etats-Unis et l'Union Européenne ont resserré peu à peu l'embargo contre l'Iran. Cet embargo ne concerne pas seulement le commerce mais aussi les investissements étrangers et les tentatives des Etats-Unis pour exclure l'Iran du système bancaire international (31).

Les répercussions sont catastrophiques. Les sanctions sont devenues douloureuses surtout ces deux dernières années. L'inflation est de 40 % sur une base annuelle et le chômage des jeunes s'élève à 28 %. Depuis 2005 la pauvreté est passée de 22 à 40 %. En ce moment les revenus pétroliers sont inférieurs de 60 % à ce qu'ils étaient en 2005. La valeur du rial a diminué de 70 % et rien qu'en 2012les réserves extérieures passaient de 110 à 70 milliards de dollars. En 2012 le pnb a baissé de 5,4 % (32).

A terme cela n'est pas tenable économiquement, mais en plus cela sape la stabilité politique. L'insatisfaction de la population augmente. Selon un sondage de fin 2012, 48 % des personnes indiquaient que les sanctions touchaient sérieusement leur vie personnelle et pour 35 autres % c'était moins le cas (33).

Ce sont surtout les revenus moyens (34), soit environ la moitié de la population, qui en ont assez de la faiblesse de l'économie et du monopole de pouvoir de la cléricature conservatrice. En Egypte, en Turquie et au Brésil, c'est la révolte des revenus moyens qui a fait trembler sur ses bases l'establishment politique. Cela n'aura pas échappé aux autorités iraniennes (35).

Après les élections de 2009 il y a eu des vagues de protestations. C'est ce qu'on a voulu éviter lors des dernières élections de juin. Le fait que 51 % de la population a voté pour l'actuel président Rouhani, alors qu'il n'était pas le candidat préférentiel de l'Ayatollah Khamenei, le plus haut dirigeant religieux, est très significatif. La direction du pays a compris ce signal et a donné le feu vert aux pourparlers avec les Etats-Unis (36).

Sauver les meubles

Reprenons point par point les éléments iraniens. Après l'invasion en Irak les rapports de force régionaux étaient assez favorables pour le pays. Mais la combinaison de la guerre en Syrie, la situation instable en Irak et les sanctions économiques aggravées, les mirent en péril. Téhéran se rendit compte qu'il n'était pas assez fort, dans les circonstances du moment, pour endosser le rôle de grande puissance régionale. Il était donc temps d'abandonner la politique étrangère radicale et de s'asseoir à la table des négociations, d'autant plus que les Etats-Unis également voulaient réduire leur empreinte militaire dans la région (37).

Début septembre Obama voulait bombarder la Syrie. Son intention n'était pas d'éliminer le président Assad mais bien de l'affaiblir et de freiner l'offensive de l'armée syrienne. En concluant un accord avec les Etats-Unis, Téhéran a pu éviter ce scénario désavantageux (38).

Grâce à l'accord Téhéran peut aussi consolider sa position en Irak, et la position de son allié syrien s'en trouve renforcée. L'Iran est reconnu de fait comme la grande puissance régionale légitime et il renforce sa position vis-à-vis de la Russie et de la Turquie (39).

L'amélioration des relations avec l'Occident va revivifier l'économie. De nouveaux investissements étrangers étaient urgents pour moderniser l'appareil de production, et ils vont sans doute arriver rapidement. La diminution des sanctions sera aussi rapidement sensible pour les budgets des Iraniens, ce qui donnera plus de légitimité au gouvernement (40). 

Conclusion

L'accord que concluent les deux pays est provisoire et il a une portée limitée. Mais si les deux partenaires en respectent les clauses, cet accord débouchera dans les six mois sur un grand accord de coopération. Et cela pourrait certainement avoir pour effet un séisme dans tout le Moyen-Orient.

Traduit depuis le néerlandais par Anne Meert pour Investig’Action

Notes


 C'est la conclusion des différents services de renseignement des USA en 2012.
 http://articles.latimes.com/2012/feb/23/world/la-fg-iran-intel-20120224 . Des officiers supérieurs de tous les grands services de renseignement étatsuniens ont déclaré qu'il n'y a pas de preuve formelle que depuis 2003 l'Iran a fait des essais pour produire des armes nucléaires.



 Le vice-président Dick Cheney, en tant que ministre de la Défense, fut politiquement responsable de l'invasion du Panama (1989) et de l'opération ‘Desert Storm’ en Irak (1991). 
Le ministre des Affaires Etrangères Colin Powell : ancien chef d'état major de l'armée e.a. pendant l'opération ‘Desert Storm’.
Le ministre de la Défense Donald Rumsfeld : ancien pilote, était auparavant déjà ministre de la Défense et ambassadeur auprès de l'OTAN ; sous Reagan il supprima le mot « détente » (entre les USA et l'URSS) du vocabulaire officiel.
Le secrétaire adjoint à la Défense Paul Wolfowitz : travailla comme conseiller au Pentagone et aida à créer le « Central Command », épine dorsale des forces armées pendant la Guerre du Golfe ; il a lancé la théorie des faucons de l'unipolarité, càd qu'après la chute de l'URSS les USA doivent dominer le monde ; il enseigna au National War College.
Richard Armitage, assistant du secrétaire d'État : a fait carrière au Pentagone et fut négociateur pendant la Guerre du Golfe et en rapport avec une base militaire aux Philipinnes.
James Kelly, Secrétaire d'Etat adjoint, a servi à la Navy et travaillé au Pentagone.
I. Lewis Libby : assistant du vice-président Cheney pour les affaires de sécurité, il travaillait déjà pour le ministère de la Défense, il fut décoré par la Navy et lança avec Wolfowitz la doctrine de l'unipolarité.
John Negroponte : ambassadeur auprès des Nations Unies, une des figures-clés de la guerre sale et secrète contre les Sandinistes au Nicaragua (des dizaines de milliers de morts, surtout civils).
Richard Perle : conseiller du ministre de la Défense, membre influent de l'American Free Entreprise Institute, un Think Tank ultra-conservateur ; membre d'un groupe de travail étudiant comment les technologies de pointe peuvent améliorer la productivité de l'armée ; auteur de « Hard Line ».
Source : Vandepitte M., ‘Irak : Startschot voor de Derde Wereldoorlog’, Brussel 2003, p.71-2.







12 Au sein des groupes rebelles, les djihadistes sont devenus majoritaires. L'armée Syrienne Libre, qui est laïque, compte 50.000 combattants. Les djihadistes ont 54.000 à 69.000 combattants, largement étrangers au pays. La milice la plus « efficace » est celle signée Al Qaïda, avec Jabhat al-Nusra et ses 7.000 combattants. Chez les djihadistes la répartition est la suivante : le Front Syrien de Libération compte 37.000 combattants, le Front syrien Islamique 10 à 25.000 et Jabhat al-Nusra 7.000.

13 Liban : idem lien





18 Brzezinski Z., ‘Strategic Vision. America and the Crisis of Global Power’, New York 2012, p. 131.

Dans les autres continents aussi les activités militaires sont accrues. Les USA auraient plus de 700 bases militaires ou installations à l'étranger. En Amérique du Sud, après 60 ans, ils rendaient à nouveau opérationnelle la Quatrième Flotte. La CIA fut directement ou indirectement partie prenante des coups d'état au Vénézuéla (2002) et au Honduras (2009). En 2009 le Pentagone créait Africom, un nouveau commando militaire coordonnant toutes les opérations sur le continent africain. Africom est maintenant actif dans 49 des 54 pays africains et les USA ont des bases militaires ou des installations permanentes dans au moins 10 pays. La militarisation des USA sur ce continent augmente durablement.


21 Le reste des troupes US y resteront au moins jusque 2024 : http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/irans-geopolitical-priorities-south-asia













Pour un revenu moyen on prend généralement un revenu d'au moins 12 dollar par jour :http://www.pewglobal.org/2009/02/12/the-global-middle-class/.








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