By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, March 24, 2008; 10:45 AM
I guess I can go ahead and take that vacation now.
The Democratic race is apparently over. As in history, finis, kaput.
Those of us who keep writing about it are said to be misguided, while the Clintonites staging their daily conference calls are just, I don't know, in denial.
That's the conclusion of some smart political writers: that the rest of us in the media are just pretending there's still a viable race.
This was prompted, I suppose, by the collapse of party efforts to stage do-overs in Florida and Michigan, which might have given Hillary Clinton a chance to make up some ground. And Bill Richardson's endorsement of Barack Obama on Friday could be seen as icing on the cake.
Remember when the media wrote off Hillary after Iowa, and again during the 10-state losing streak on the way to Ohio and Texas? Well, this time they really mean it.
Now I'm not going to contend that Hillary has a great chance to win the nomination. She'll clearly finish behind in pledged delegates, and even the delegates with super powers are going to find that awfully hard to overturn.
But what if she finishes the season with a series of big wins, beginning in Pennsylvania? And if more doubts are raised about Obama? Could party insiders have second thoughts?
I like political writers who are blunt and candid, but I'm not sure it's our place to declare a presidential contest over. Maybe they're right. We'll have to see.
At Politico, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen say the media are engaging in make-believe:
"One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning. Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party's most reliable constituency.
"Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote -- which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle -- and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.
"People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet. . . . Journalists have become partners with the Clinton campaign in pretending that the contest is closer than it really is. . . . One reason is fear of embarrassment. In its zeal to avoid predictive reporting of the sort that embarrassed journalists in New Hampshire, the media -- including Politico -- have tended to avoid zeroing in on the tough math Clinton faces."
Huffington Post's Cenk Uygur applauds the piece:
"It's somewhat hilarious to watch the media eat up the campaign spin on the record, that she's got a great shot to win this and win the presidency. Of course, the race gets a whole lot more boring with lower ratings when it's Obama vs. McCain, probably with a huge lull in the campaign, where -- God forbid -- the news media will actually have to go out and find and report news, and not just campaign talking points sent to them."
Slate's Christopher Beam takes issue with a NYT analysis last week that Clinton's chances of winning are "narrow":
"All this being a long way of saying, Hillary's path to the nomination is not 'narrow.' It's barricaded. Yet still there seems to be a hesitation among the media to declare Clinton dead. Maybe it's her zombielike ability to rise again -- first in New Hampshire, then in Nevada, then most recently in Texas and Ohio. But people have to understand there will be no knockout blow, no head shot. Rather it will be a long, slow exit that causes pain to everyone involved.
"The question is, who is going to tell Hillary it's over?"
Here are just some of her problems, as enumerated by Time's Mark Halperin:
"1. She can't win the nomination without overturning the will of the elected delegates, which will alienate many Democrats.
"2. She can't win the nomination without a bloody convention battle -- after which, even if she won, history and many Democrats would cast her as a villain.
"3. Catching up in the popular vote is not out of the question -- but without re-votes in Florida and Michigan it will be almost as impossible as catching up in elected delegates.
"4. Nancy Pelosi and other leading members of Congress don't think she can win and want her to give up. Same with superdelegate-to-the-stars Donna Brazile.
"5. Obama's skilled, close-knit staff can do things like silently kill re-votes in Florida and Michigan and not pay a political price.
"6. Many of her supporters -- and even some of her staffers -- would be relieved (and even delighted) if she quit the race; none of his supporters or staff feel that way. Some think she just might throw in the towel in June if it appears efforts to fight on would hurt Obama's general election chances.
"7. The Rev. Wright story notwithstanding, the media still wants Obama to be the nominee -- and that has an impact every day."
Have you been reading all the pieces about Hillary's first lady calendars? The New Republic's Michelle Cottle has:
"Beyond any salacious tidbits, what reporters and political watchers seem to be looking for most desperately in Hillary's newly released White House schedules is some sense of who she is . . .
"I find this obsession with a candidate's inner life bizarre and annoying (especially after all the absurd heart-gazing we've endured during the Bush years.) Sorry, but I don't feel compelled to know what my presidential candidate is feeling any more than I crave a candidate who seems like a regular guy with whom it'd be fun to hang out and have a beer. I like a commander-in-chief who can keep his/her emotions under control -- possibly even under wraps -- and who is a damn site more dignified and qualified for the job than I, my friends, or any other Average Joe. I want a president who is better than I am, not one who makes me feel better about myself. That's what Oprah's for.
"But American politics being what they are, the fact that, god knows how many months into this campaign, Team Hillary still hasn't managed to make the public feel like we know its gal strikes me as a not insignificant problem."
The Obama speech is still being debated -- a healthy sign, in my view -- and Rich Lowry thinks he pulled a fast one:
"In his hour of political need, Barack Obama went to his base -- the media. He delivered a speech about the nation's racial divisions that couldn't possibly get anything but lavish praise from the press, burying for now the controversy over his longtime pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. A gifted writer, Obama can plumb depths most politicians can't, and he spoke truths about the state of race relations in America in an unusually frank and subtle way." Still, "in the end, Obama made the case for the respectability of a man who is a hater."
Peggy Noonan likes the Obama address, and makes a fascinating point about media coverage:
"I thought Barack Obama's speech was strong, thoughtful and important. Rather beautifully, it was a speech to think to, not clap to. It was clear that's what he wanted, and this is rare.
"It seemed to me as honest a speech as one in his position could give within the limits imposed by politics . . .
"It is assumed now that a candidate must say a silly, boring line -- 'And families in Michigan matter!' or 'What I stand for is affordable quality health care!' -- and the audience will clap. The line and the applause make, together, the eight-second soundbite that will be used tonight on the news, and seen by the people. This has been standard politico-journalistic procedure for 20 years.
"Mr. Obama subverted this in his speech. He didn't have applause lines. He didn't give you eight seconds of a line followed by clapping. He spoke in full and longish paragraphs that didn't summon applause. This left TV producers having to use longer-than-usual soundbites in order to capture his meaning. And so the cuts of the speech you heard on the news were more substantial and interesting than usual, which made the coverage of the speech better."
The LAT reminds us that John McCain's criticism of the war effort came only after the invasion:
"Before the war, McCain predicted a quick and easy victory, not a vicious insurgency. He issued dire warnings about Saddam Hussein's supposed weapons of mass destruction but didn't read the full 2002 National Intelligence Estimate that showed gaps in the intelligence."
How did federal investigators start looking into a Democratic governor hiring hookers? The New York Post has the answer:
"Four months before a hooker scandal brought down Eliot Spitzer, controversial Republican operative Roger Stone tipped the FBI to the governor's penchant for prostitutes."
We'll wind up this morning with today's print column:
The press wasn't paying much attention to John McCain last fall when he called Ed Morrissey from the campaign trail and spent 38 minutes fielding questions.
"You sound pretty chipper for a dead guy," the radio host told McCain, whose presidential campaign had been all but buried by mainstream journalists. The Arizona senator joked that his wife had performed "mouth-to-mouth resuscitation."
The radio show McCain was calling isn't heard on the air, and averages perhaps 1,000 listeners. Morrissey's program is one of 3,400 carried on the Internet through an outfit called BlogTalkRadio, which has quietly emerged as a populist force in cyberspace.
"I wouldn't say I'm a national name, but it's a great way to connect with blog readers," says Morrissey, a conservative who has interviewed other GOP candidates. "There's an immediacy to it, a connection greater than when you're just putting words up on a Web site."
A year and a half after New Jersey businessman Alan Levy launched the venture, BlogTalkRadio is averaging 2.4 million listeners each month for programs that range from politics to the paranormal, along with sports, finance, food, religion and romance. The Pentagon recently started two shows on the network.
The question is whether this is a flash in the pan that appeals mainly to geeks and those with a need to talk to someone -- anyone -- or whether, like blogs, online radio could explode in popularity.
Most shows are hosted from home by bloggers who need no special equipment and pay no fee. The only requirement is that they put a link to the program on their Web site. On BlogTalkRadio's site, visitors can search for programs by name or category.
The process is nearly idiot-proof. The host logs onto a Web page with a password, types in when he wants the show to air, and then -- using a garden-variety phone -- calls a special number. The computer screen lists the phone numbers of guests or listeners calling in, and the host can put as many as six on the air at once by clicking a mouse. Listeners can download a podcast version later.
"It's a great tool," says James Boyce, who blogs at the Huffington Post and recently took a break from his online show to work for Bill Richardson's presidential campaign. "There's no barrier to entry. You set up your own show with simple-to-use technology." Boyce helped BlogTalkRadio launch a liberal channel but says conservative shows have become more popular: "The left is kind of behind a little bit right now."
Valencia Roner, a Los Angeles freelancer who writes a blog on the views of black women, was wary when she started a weekly show in January. "I was a little intimidated because I didn't want to get on and sound crazy," she says. But after being a guest on other blog radio shows, she decided to give it a shot. Her program is now drawing about 20,000 listeners each week.
"There are a lot of beautiful, well-read, articulate African American women who are not angry, and I want to be their face," the former corporate marketer says. "Why should political pundits, who are mostly white men, talk about the black community's perspective? You're not black; how do you know?" Roner, who attributes her early popularity to her enthusiastic backing of Barack Obama's candidacy, has had nibbles from local and satellite radio stations.
Some better-known people are also gravitating toward the outlet; former CNN correspondent Bob Franken recently started a show.
Levy, who runs two telecommunications companies that also service BlogTalkRadio, says he came up with the idea after his father's death, hoping to move beyond the memorial Web site he had set up. After looking at "the whole ecosystem of millions of people having a blog," he recalls thinking: "Wouldn't it be interesting if people could have their own radio show? Why should there be only one Rush Limbaugh or Howard Stern? . . . You have all this talent with no place to go."
After the August 2006 launch, Levy began doing several shows a day himself. He had his headset on at home when his 12-year-old daughter walked in with a homework question and asked, "Who are you talking to?"
"No one," Levy replied. And for a time, that was largely true.
For the next few months, Levy e-mailed every blogger and commentator he could find. The concept spread by word of mouth. Some corporations, such as Sun Microsystems, joined up to webcast what are essentially in-house shows. Levy's company brings in revenue by inserting commercials into the programs, a portion of which is shared with the hosts -- as much as half if the host lines up the sponsor. But BlogTalkRadio remains in the red.
Unlikely stars have been born. Marla Cilley, known as FlyLady, dispenses home and lifestyle advice and has tapped into hundreds of thousands of fans on her Yahoo group. The offerings run the gamut, from "Bachelorette Angelique" to "Army Wives Talk Radio," along with "Feast of Fools," "Single Girls Sweat Club" and the "Pillow Talk Show." Celebrity guests, from Brad Pitt to Yoko Ono, have popped up on various programs.
Morrissey, a call center manager in the Minneapolis area who had done some unpaid weekend gigs on local radio, was an early skeptic. "Are people really going to listen to me?" he recalls thinking. "It was the same thing when I started my blog: Who's going to read this?"
He is now a true believer, drawing as many as 5,000 listeners for a big-name guest. In fact, Morrissey, known online as Captain Ed, doubles as customer relations chief for BlogTalkRadio. While he is taking calls during the show, he also types answers to 50 or so listeners who want to chat with him simultaneously online.
"I try to do it without stumbling over myself," Morrissey says. "I don't always succeed."
Levy sounds surprised that his little brainstorm has spawned thousands of programs. "I'm humbled, and my dad would be proud," Levy says. "He thought I was a little crazy."
Affairs of State"It's not the kind of thing anyone likes to ask," Juan Gonzalez says.
The veteran New York Daily News columnist was talking about his sit-down with David Paterson and his wife, Michelle, hours after Paterson was sworn in as governor last Monday. Amid high hopes for the genial, legally blind man thrust into the job after the resignation of Eliot Spitzer, who has not disputed allegations of patronizing prostitutes, Paterson and his wife acknowledged to Gonzalez that each had an affair several years ago. The columnist, who approached Paterson through an intermediary after getting a tip about a specific paramour, was "stunned" by the couple's candor. A phone discussion with Paterson the previous Saturday led to the interview in Albany.
"He knew some of this stuff was going to get out eventually," Gonzalez says. "He wanted to have his wife there to make clear she knew what was going on."
Since Gonzalez's scoop, Paterson has admitted to several other affairs, one of them with the head of the aptly named Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, and reimbursed his campaign for expenses related to the trysts. "I have to confess," says Gonzalez, "I was negligent in not saying, 'Have there been others as well?' "
Who's the Worst?In his New York Times op-ed column last week, Bill Kristol, citing a conservative Web site, said Barack Obama had been at a July sermon in which his former pastor made some of his more inflammatory comments. After bloggers noted that Obama was off campaigning that day, Kristol ran a correction.
That night, on his MSNBC show, Keith Olbermann declared that Times Executive Editor Bill Keller should have fired Kristol. Olbermann went a step further, naming Keller his nightly "Worst Person in the World."
When I told Olbermann that Keller has no authority over the op-ed pages, he quickly acknowledged the error. The next night, in fact, he named himself a runner-up in the "Worst Person" competition. Now that's accountability!
Trick PlayWhen Sam Zell, the new Tribune Co. owner whose domain now includes the Chicago Cubs, said he might rename storied Wrigley Field, the rival Chicago Sun-Times started a "Zell no!" video contest.
The winner of the $1,000 prize, for a song parody titled "We're Not Gonna Change It": 22-year-old Cubs fan Katie Hamilton -- who, the Sun-Times belatedly discovered, works for the Tribune. The tabloid had to report that "the Sun-Times has been punk'd."
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